Beisbol Has Been Berry Berry Good To Me.

First off... sorry it's been so long.  Had alot of shit going on.  I promise to be back more regularly.  I know you missed me.


For my triumphant return, I'd like to take a look at my preseason MLB predictions and see how I'm faring so far.  Read it real quick, brush up on what I said, and prepare to be amazed.  Basically, this will mostly serve as a way for me to prove I'm smarter than you, and most of the sportswriters you like to follow.  That way, you'll keep coming back here, and I'll have you right where I want you.



Let's break this down by division and compare my predictions with the actual current standings.  Then I'll throw a couple comments in there, give a revised decision if necessary, say who I think is the most important player in the division for the 2nd half, and grade myself based on how well my predictions match up.


AL EAST:

Sick:       Yanks, Red Sox, Rays, O's, BJs
Current:  Yanks, Rays, Red Sox, BJs, O's

My thoughts:  Mostly how I imagined it.  The Yanks are in 1st, as they should be.  I knew the Rays would be good (I said I thought they were a top 5 team in all of baseball), but I also said I didn't think they'd last in the top 2 of this division.  I still don't.  As of now, Boston is only 3 games behind them.  And as much as I despise the Sox, they have had the worst run of injuries I've ever seen.  Once they get healthy (if they do) the Rays are in trouble.  Especially since I see them making a move before the trade deadline.  And even moreso because Big Sloppy is somehow back from the dead.  As for the bottom of the division, I'll admit 2 things.  First, I gotta give the BlowJays some credit.  I expected them to really fall apart, and somehow they've actually been decent.  Vernon Wells almost earned a couple dollars of his enormously bad contract.  Second, the Orioles are wayyyy worse than I thought they'd be.  No clue what I was thinking.  One of the worst squads I've seen in my life.
Revision?  Not really.  The Yanks will still win this division.  The Sox will eventually take 2nd and the Wild Card.  Consider this:  the Rays have been perfect-gamed twice in a year (by Mark Buehrle last year and fucking Dallas Braden this year) AND were no-hit by Edwin Jackson earlier this season as well.  That doesn't seem to be a team ready to win it all to me.
Most important 2nd half player:  Joba.  The Yanks need to solidify their bullpen.  Their offense, starting pitching, and Mo have been just fine.  Gotta bridge that gap.
My grade:  A

AL CENTRAL:
Sick:       White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Indians, Royals
Current:  White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Royals, Indians
My thoughts:  Eerily similar, isn't it?  You can commence blowing me virally at any moment.  Seriously though... so far, the AL Central is making me look like Sicktradamus.  It's very, very close at the top right now, but I think the White Sox can hold it off.  The deciding factor will probably be if one (or more) of the top 3 make a move.  I think it'll be like a domino effect though; if one of them does some sort of roster shuffle, the other 2 will try to follow suit to keep up.  I also want to give myself a big pat on the back for specifically mentioning that I thought Alex Rios would have a great year.  His current numbers?  Batting .305, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 23 SB.  I'd say a .300/30HR/100RBI/40SB season isn't out of reach, and I'd also say I was right.
Revision?  No way.  I hit the nail on the head so far with this division.  Gotta stick with my gut.
Most important 2nd half player:  Mark Buehrle & Gavin Floyd.  Especially with Peavy going down.  The Sox need their starters to hold up in order to hold on to their lead.
My grade:  A++++

AL WEST:

Sick:       Rangers, Mariners, Angels, A's
Current:  Rangers, Angels, A's, Mariners
My thoughts:  Seriously, you can stop bowing to me.  Just finish reading and then worship.  This was a division that nearly everyone in the world was calling for the Mariners, and the few people who weren't were saying LA.  Well fuck you all.  I knew this Texas offense would be serious.  I even specifically predicted that the Rangers would make a major move for a pitcher... and they went and got Cliff Lee, the trade deadline's biggest catch.  I'll admit I drank the Mariners Kool-Aid a little bit, picking them to finish 2nd, but hey I'm still mostly human.  And I always foolishly underestimate Mike Scioscia.  However, him and the rest of the Angels brass underestimated my favorite ballplayer ever, Vlad the Impaler, and now he's helping their rivals beat them.  I said in my preview I'd take an aging Vlad 11 times out of 10 over Hideki Matsui, and I still stand by it.
Revision?  Not at the top.  I still think the Rangers win out, especially with the Lee addition strengthening their pitching staff.  But I expect the Mariners to stay on the bottom, so I was a little off there.
Most important 2nd half player:  It's too obvious to say Cliff Lee, so I'm gonna go with Josh Hamilton.  Seems to me that as he goes, so goes this offense.  If they score runs like they can when he's hot, they're tough to beat.
My grade:  A-


NL EAST:
Sick:       Phils, Marlins, Braves, Mets, Nats
Current:  Braves, Mets, Phils, Marlins, Nats
My thoughts:  No one saw this one coming.  While I will pat myself on the back for predicting the Braves would put a scare into the Phils, I also didn't think it would be a legitimate threat.  Congrats to Bobby Cox, even though I'm pretty sure he's an Avatar at this point and some young manager is controlling his body.  I thought the Marlins would be better, but aside from Josh Johnson (the best pitcher in baseball?), they're pretty much worthless.  Someone needs to smack Hanley Ramirez around a little bit and get him motivated.
Revision?  A little bit.  I still see the Phils pulling it together.  That offense is just too good.  I doubt it'll be by the at-least-7-game margin I had foreseen, however.  The Marlins disappoint me & definitely won't finish anywhere near the top 3 here.  If the Mets make a major pitching move (Dan Haren?), they'll battle with the Braves right down to the wire for 2nd.  I think the Wild Card probably comes from here.
Most important 2nd half player:  Gotta be Billy Wagner.  Now I didn't think he was entirely done... but I didn't think he had this much left in him.  20 saves, 5 wins, 56 K and 20 H in 37.1 IP, 1.21 ERA, and only 3 BS.  If he keeps that up, the Braves will, too.
My grade:  B-

NL CENTRAL:

Sick:       Cards, Brewcrew, Cubs, Reds, Stros, Pirates
Current:  Reds, Cards, Brewcrew, Cubs, Stros, Pirates
My thoughts:  Another one that very few people saw coming... maybe even moreso.  I said the Reds would be decent, but would underachieve.  So far they've overachieved like a motherfucker.  They're only one game up on St. Louis though, which to me means that they are one major injury or one serious Cardinals run away from blowing it.  I did say the Cubs would implode completely, and at 11 games under .500 with a continuing Zambrano situation, they certainly have.  The Brewers disappoint me and really aren't in the hunt here at all.  Yea, a great offense, but it's not doing them much good.
Revision?  Not so much.  I'll stick with the Cards winning eventually, but much props the Reds so far.  If they can keep it up they'll really make it hard for the Cards.  Personally I think they'll end up 6 or 7 games behind St. Louis.
Most important 2nd half player:  The whole Reds squad.  I just don't see it happening.  I hope they prove me wrong.
My grade:  C

NL WEST: 
Sick:        Rockies, Dodgers, Giants, DBacks, Padres
Current:  Padres, Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, DBacks
My thoughts:  Wow.  Seriously?  The Padres?  I say it's a fluke.  Don't know how the fuck they've managed to hang around like this.  But the Dodgers & Rockies are both only 2 games back, and the Giants are within 4.  I was way off on the Padres though... even if they don't end up at the top of this division, I said they'd battle for the worst record in baseball.  And you wonder why I saved this division for last.
Revision?  Partially, but not at the top.  I'm going to stick with the Rockies winning.  But I do foresee the Padres continuing to give them trouble.  This might be another division that'll come down to trades.  One of these teams COULD win the Wild Card... but I'll say it'll probably be an NL East team.
Most important 2nd half player:  Every Rockies pitcher that isn't Jimenez.  A couple of those guys gotta step up and help him shoulder the load.
My grade:  B-

Overall, I'll give myself an A-.  I nailed the AL, which is really all that matters because who truly gives a fuck about the NL.  And even the stuff I missed in the NL is because of some serious surprises.  The Reds, Braves, and Padres as division leaders?  If you can find me just ONE 2010 MLB preview that predicted that, I'll buy the guy a case of beer.  I'm still proud of myself for the Rangers/White Sox calls.  Don't think I deserve an A-?  Fuck you.  I'm the one doing the grading here.


My other predictions were mostly shit, but whatever.  Halladay could still win the NL Cy Young, but it'll probably be Ubaldo "Where the fuck did I come from" Jimenez or Josh Johnson.  Greinke is definitely not winning the AL one;  if i had to re-choose I'd say Lester, CC, or Cliff.  I'll still pick a non-Pooholes player to win NL MVP, and while I am not too confident of ARod winning in the AL that is very up-in-the-air right now.  And Cano will still win the AL batting title.  I have to be right on that eventually. Oh yea... and it's going to be hilarious when Ron Washington wins AL Manager of the Year the same year he admitted he was a blowhound.


I'm still standing by my Yanks/Rangers/Cards/Phils final 4, with the Yanks honoring the late great Mr. Steinbrenner and repeating at the expense of the Cardinals.  We'll see. 


See you at the ballgame.