Keeping that in mind, there are 3 teams in the AFC East with a legitimate chance to win the division. In the past few years, I believe the AFC East has been a bit overrated. They lucked out in scheduling, and each AFC East team has been among the lowest ranking strength of schedules for a few years in a row. That's all changing this year. They have a pretty rough draw - playing the NFC and AFC North. Fortunately there is somewhat of a counterbalance as I do believe the AFC East is more talented this year than they have been in the past. Naturally, I'm forced into picking one team above the others, which will invariably piss people off, ruffle feathers, and make people wish serious harm upon me. Let the good times roll- I'm breaking down each team, and see how they're going to fare this year...
Buffalo Bills
Remember a couple years ago when Buffalo was the trendy pick to turn the corner and challenge the Patriots? Well, I didn't believe in them then, and I certainly don't believe in them now. Offensively, they're a joke - and a bad joke at that. They have holes and needs all throughout their roster, and during the draft, they go out and target the one position that they probably were the deepest at - RB. Think about that.... Suppose you owned a car with a bad engine, but good tires. The solution to fix the car (according to the Bills) is to purchase an even newer, better set of tires and assume the car's going to keep running. I'm sorry, but until CJ Spiller lines up at QB, this team is still going to suck.
"Welp, a couple of Good Years outta do it."
The Bills do have a defensive core that has shown promise in stretches (lots of turnovers, some pretty good games throughout the past few years), but they just forced their best pass rusher to retire, and they still can't figure out how to stop the run. Byrd is a stud, and he's going to be huge for them in the future, but this team is still years away. Their defense gave up nearly 600 yards rushing to the Jets last year. That's absurd. You simply can't do that and be competitive in this league.
Prediction: With their schedule, I see them winning about 3 games.... and that could be being generous. They'll sneak 1 or maybe 2 away from teams in their division, and then maybe beat the Chiefs, Lions, or Browns. Unless CJ Spiller can carry the ball 25+ times a game and break 1 or 2 huge runs each half, I can't picture them being competitive this year.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins seem to be the forgotten team in the AFC East. The Jets are everyones trendy Super Bowl Pick, the Patriots are the Patriots, and the Bills are going to suck. In case you need to be reminded, the Dolphins won the division just 2 years ago... sadly, they're also the football team that went 1-15 just 1 year before that. This offseason, they gave their promising, young QB a legitimate target in Brandon Marshall, and have a duo of RB's who are vastly underrated. They're flying under the radar a bit, and I tend to like that in teams. Their defense is better than you'd expect, but they have some issues in the secondary, and they need a few playmakers to force more turnovers.
The Dolphins this year are like the pretty, nerdy girl from high school. Some days you'd look at her and wonder why you never made a move... then she'd do/say something completely weird, and you'd remember why you never talked to her. The Dolphins are the same way - at a glance, they're looking pretty good. However, there's just something about them that keeps me away from them. Take a look at their last two seasons. Besides divisional opponents, they haven't beat a single team with a winning record. Not one. Now take a look at their first 9 games: Bills, Vikes, Jets, New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh (possibly with Roethlisberger), Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Tennessee. Of those teams, only the Bills were under .500 last year. The Dolphins are a decent team, and they will be competitive, but they simply aren't good enough to consistently beat good teams. If Henne can put it all together this year, it will be a different story, but I simply don't see it yet.
Prediction: Their tough opening has the potential to get ugly fast. It wouldn't be out of the question to see them have a season similar to the Panthers or Titans of last year, where they start off pretty bad, but pull it together down the stretch. Unfortunately, it's too little, too late. 7-9 finish. Miss the playoffs.
New England Patriots
I'll be perfectly honest with you - I hate the Patriots. Maybe it's jealousy. Maybe it's Tom Brady's haircut.
However, as much as I hate them, I can't deny how incredibly talented they've been for over a decade. It's really amazing. You may question certain players/aspects of the team (I still believe that Brady is a decent QB in a great system), but you can't deny that the Patriots are going to be competitive, and probably make the playoffs.
That being said, this is not the same team any more. Sure, some of the faces are the same, but how much turnover has there been since their last Super Bowl? In 2007, the Pats were a beast - however, their defense was an aging dinosaur. While no one had an answer to their offense that year, their defense was sneakily soft - they had holes that they stuffed players out of retirement into. When teams were able to slow down their offense, their defense became exposed. While they've gotten away with it for a few years, they can't do it forever, and last years draft was pretty much unimpressive. Sure they had as many draft picks as Anthony Cromartie has illegitimate children, but how many of them are really making an impact? Aside from Jerod Mayo and Brendan Merriweather (both of whom were first round picks by the way), the Patriots have struck out pretty bad the past few years. If some of those "quantity over quality" picks don't step up this year, it could mean the end of the era.
Prediction: On the otherhand, this is still the Patriots. They still have Tom Brady. They still have Wes Welker, and they still have Randy Moss. Bottom Line - they can still win football games. Yes, the defense will struggle, and yes, I don't trust the offensive line as much as I did a few years back, and I can say the same thing about Brady. This may be a "worse" year than the Patriots are used to, but even so, they'll compete for the division. They finish at 10-6, but lose in tie breakers.
The New York Jets
Let's hear the hype-monger grow.... according to many, the Jets are the Super Bowl favorites this year - they had an impressive post-season run last year, and they improved in their weakest area by adding Santonio Holmes. Pending the return of Revis, this defense should be unbreakable again.
While I do enjoy Rex Ryan, and the team is making Hard Knocks both watchable and memorable, I have a lot of doubts about this football team. It's funny because I normally love teams in their position. They have a great offensive line, a great defense, a powerful rushing attack, and a young, developing QB.... What's not to love?
Well, I am not a Mark Sanchez believer. Wait. Scratch that. I do believe in him.... I just believe he sucks. While he had a few good games last year, he had many, many more awful ones. Even with a mediocre QB leading that offense last year, the Jets were an 11 win football team. Give Sanchez the keys, and they had to sneak into the playoffs by beating the Bengals and Colts backups in the final two weeks of the season. He's basically the perfect storm of everything I don't trust in QB's - he's been very inaccurate, he makes awful decisions, and now he's being hyped up way too much way too fast.
Suppose the Jets missed the playoffs last year (they damn near did). What would you think about Mark Sanchez given his performance through the 16 game regular season? I know I'd be far from impressed with it - if I were a Jet's fan, I'd even say I was disappointed. In my opinion, playing an extra couple of decent games doesn't make that big of a difference, even if it is the playoffs. Sure, it's good experience for a young player, and it will help him later in his career, but it's foolish to think he's suddenly going to be playing at a high level - and his preseason performances are just reinforcing my point. Even in the playoffs last year, when Sanchez had his good games, he really only handed the ball off against the Bengals, and it took approximately 30 missed field goals by the Chargers to give the Jets a chance to sneak by them. If this team had picked up McNabb this offseason, I'd consider them a shoo-in for the Super Bowl. With Sanchez, they need to work to make the playoffs.
The Jets are a decent, but unspectacular QB away from being a dominant football team, and I don't think Sanchez can be that guy. At least not yet. Combine that with the loss of both Washington and Thomas Jones, and then factor in that Revis may not play, and you are left with quite a few questions, especially for a team that nearly lost twice to the pitiful Bills last year....
Prediction: Even with Sanchez and without Revis, I think the Jets have a talent level about equal to the Patriots right now. The difference maker will be their schedule - They probably have the easiest in the AFC East, with the exception of the Bills. They ride it out to a 10-6 finish, and take the division.
